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A stock can gain a bullish Wall Street call and still fall 6% before lunch. That is precisely what happened to Space Exploration Systems this week, and the disconnect says as much about how investors are pricing artificial intelligence as it does about rockets or satellites. Wedbush Securities set the SpaceX Wedbush price target at $190 per share, initiating coverage with an SPCX outperform rating that frames the company less as a launch provider and more as an emerging force in computing infrastructure. The call, delivered by Dan Ives, SpaceX analyst and Wedbush’s Global Head of Tech Research, landed on CNBC’s Fast Money with a line that immediately reframed the stock’s investment case: SpaceX, Ives said, is “much more of an AI play” than a traditional space company.
This new perspective is important because SpaceX has acted like a meme stock since its record-breaking IPO on June 12. The stock opened at $150, jumped to $225, then dropped back down to around $170. Wedbush’s coverage came during this period of big swings, and the market didn’t react positively at first. SPCX shares fell about 6% in morning trading, even though Wedbush presented one of the boldest valuation cases on Wall Street this year.
The SpaceX AI Hyperscaler Thesis, Explained
Ives based his analysis on SpaceX’s vertically integrated platform, which covers connectivity, launches, and AI infrastructure. He called SpaceX “one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market,” using this phrase to set it apart from other aerospace companies. The main idea behind the SpaceX AI hyperscaler thesis is simple: SpaceX already owns the satellites, ground infrastructure, and more of the computing power that AI companies need. It can rent out this capacity just like Amazon Web Services or Microsoft Azure rent out server time.
SpaceX isn’t a typical hyperscaler like AWS or Google Cloud. It doesn’t offer a full self-service software stack, managed databases, or the customer tools those platforms have. Instead, it provides raw computing power, mainly through projects like Elon Musk’s Colossus data center in Memphis, Tennessee, which he calls a “gigafactory of compute.” SpaceX has already made deals with Alphabet, Anthropic, and Reflection AI to supply computing power for their AI work. These contracts alone bring in nearly $2 billion each month. Ives estimates that the wider AI and compute business is signing deals worth about $28 billion a year, which would have seemed impossible for a rocket company just two years ago.
Starlink Still Bears the Weight
Even with all the attention on artificial intelligence, SpaceX Starlink revenue remains the foundation of Wedbush’s valuation model. The satellite broadband unit counts approximately 12 million subscribers as of early June, with average revenue per user near $66 across its enterprise and consumer customer base. That translates to nearly $19.3 billion in revenue and a gross margin of nearly 49%, based on Wedbush’s numbers. Ives said Starlink is “still in the early innings of penetrating the global telecom and broadband market,” pointing out that SpaceX has less than 1% of that market so far, even as it keeps growing its direct-to-device cellular service.
In contrast, SpaceX’s launch operations act more as a strategic benefit than a big source of profit. Falcon 9 leads the global commercial launch market, and Starship aims to lower costs by carrying more satellites at once. However, most launches are used to deploy SpaceX’s own Starlink equipment rather than to sell to other companies. That’s why the launch business adds much less to Wedbush’s valuation model than Starlink or the AI compute segment.
How Wedbush Arrived at the SPCX $190 Target
Wedbush’s $190 target for SPCX is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation using projected 2028 revenue. The numbers are bold by any measure. The model suggests an enterprise value of about $2.48 trillion, which would make SpaceX one of the world’s biggest companies even before its AI compute business fully develops. Ives gave the highest valuation to the AI and compute segment, saying it supports the long-term bullish outlook, even though it currently brings in less revenue than Starlink.
Ives was open about the risks in these numbers. SpaceX reported a large adjusted EBITDA loss last quarter and will likely have another before the AI business becomes profitable. He described these losses as “an investment cycle, not a business losing ground,” which will be important for investors to evaluate in the next quarters. Ives also pointed out that the entire AI-compute plan hinges on Starship operating reliably at scale, since much of the expected computing power relies on SpaceX deploying hardware and infrastructure faster than in the past. Even Wedbush’s own figures show the stock trading at a price-to-sales ratio above 115, which assumes years of perfect execution.
Why Nasdaq Inclusion Adds a New Catalyst
Aside from the valuation discussion, there’s another factor helping SpaceX. The company is set to join the Nasdaq-100 index before markets open on SpaceX Nasdaq-100 July 7, an unusually fast inclusion for a company that just went public three weeks ago. JPMorgan estimates that this move may attract about $4.3 billion in buying from index-tracking funds, regardless of what analysts think of the stock’s fundamentals. This kind of automatic demand can push a stock higher in the short term, even if investors are still debating its long-term value. That’s why some traders are watching July 7 closely, regardless of Wedbush’s price target.
What Investors Should Watch Next
For investors trying to understand the stock’s ups and downs, the key question is which part of the business to trust first. Starlink provides steady, recurring revenue with clear numbers that can be tracked each quarter. The AI compute business could have much greater potential, but it has a shorter track record, and its success depends on meeting timelines that haven’t been tested at this scale before. Anyone reading about “Wedbush Dan Ives SpaceX $190 price target AI hyperscaler thesis explained July 2026” should realize that both the optimistic and pessimistic views are based on the same facts they just judge the risks differently.
This uncertainty probably won’t go away soon. SpaceX’s pending earnings, the speed of building new Colossus-style data centers, and how often Starship launches will all test Wedbush’s 2028 predictions. For anyone searching “SpaceX SPCX outperform rating Wedbush what investors need to know before July 7 Nasdaq-100,” the quick answer is that joining the index creates short-term demand, but the long-term story depends on whether SpaceX can turn its satellite network into a real AI compute business, not just a side project. Wall Street has made its bet. Now, SpaceX must deliver the computing power, profit margins, and performance that a $2.48 trillion valuation requires.
